Tuesday, November 2, 2010
A Pre-Election Prediction
I don't think Democrat turnout will be high. They voted for change just two years ago and it hasn't come to anything. That's likely to be discouraging. I would also guess that turnout for Hispanics will be lower than normal, since Dems had a filibuster proof Congress that could have passed some sort of amnesty bill, and yet they didn't. I'm not sure how large the gay vote is for Democrats, but Obama has actually had a kind of hostile relationship with gays over Don't Ask Don't Tell, so that's not likely to help. Considering that Obama and the Democratic Congress has lost all their Republican votes and a large portion of Independents, it's really deadly to be missing parts of your base. Prediction for Dems? Bad. I already made my predictions, but maybe it will be be even worse, like losing the Senate. What does this mean for 2012? The culture wars are going to go into high gear, which is even worse for everyone.