Tuesday, November 6, 2012

I Just Don't Know

If I was observing this election without any polls, I would think Obama was going to lose bad. And yet every single poll has Obama winning or extremely close. It is really hard for me to believe that pollsters would weight their polls to such an extent that they could be putting their integrity and their jobs on the line for something as silly as making Obama look like he's winning for some political strategy. But then again the news media, movies and television haven't seemed to mind having smaller audiences (and revenue) by broadcasting only those things that mirror their world view. Oh well, we'll see. But anyways, here are some things I'll be watching for during and after the election...
  • Does Hurricane Sandy affect the voting in New York and New Jersey (and maybe Philly)? Does it reduce turnout? Does it change their vote?
  • Did the recall election really help the Republicans ground game in Wisconsin?
  • Does Romney win Wisconsin, Iowa and New Hampshire? (i.e. he won't need Ohio and the shenanigans that may occur there if it's close)
  • Does Obama lose the Black vote because of his gay marriage stance? I don't mean lose percentage-wise because that's unlikely to change, I mean the number of people actually showing up at the polls.
  • Does the media hyperventilate and (wrongly) call states before they should (like they've done before)?
  • Teh Hispanic vote
  • Formerly red states Nevada and New Mexico
  • "Romney" states Michigan and Massachusetts (and New Hampshire)
  • Who gets the blame?
And here's my last [yawn] map, with New Hampshire, Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania being too close to call. And oddly enough if Romney does lose those four states he gets to exactly 270 votes. Weird map, I know.

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