Friday, November 2, 2012

My Brain Is Boggling

I just don't understand the polls.


 


From RealClear, that's eleven states which are too close to call which kind of makes you wonder what the point of polling is when it doesn't actually tell you anything. Rasmussen has tended to be a pretty accurate pollster in the last few years so I looked up his map.

A lot of his red or blue states are still too close to call, but he actually has two states which are actually ties. I personally still think we're looking at a landslide based on how Romney's momentum keeps adding states while Obama's "firewall" keeps changing and getting smaller. Plus there's his (still) horrendous showing with independents. And yet it's a virtual tie in most polls which just continues to damage me fragile little brain. So I decided to do my own poll. And yes my brain got a little more damaged from doing this.

Response rate was 3% with a margin of error of .0027% (my phone bill is going to be epic). Polling samples were weighted with historical sampling, recent voting trends, and an augury ritual involving sheep but definitely not hobos. And yes for some reason I do have Romney losing Wisconsin and Minnesota but winning Michigan, Pennsylvania(!), and...Oregon?? And New Hampshire comes out pretty much tied. But then again three days is a long time at the end of an election so I may have to get more hob...er...sheep and try again on Monday.

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