Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Might As Well Throw This Out There Now

So I guess today is some sort of big day at the Supreme Court if you believe in whatever who cares it's Obama's America now. I mean if you're into that sort of thing. But anyway, at issue is some of the not at all confusing wording in the Affordable care Act. When ObamaCare was first passed, the government was trying to drag the more ornery states into creating their own exchanges so they said states that don't set up their own exchanges can't get subsidies for health care. Or as Obama Care adviser and unhelpful blabbermouth put it, "What’s important to remember politically about this is if you’re a state and you don’t set up an exchange, that means your citizens don’t get their tax credits—but your citizens still pay the taxes that support this bill. So you’re essentially saying [to] your citizens you’re going to pay all the taxes to help all the other states in the country. I hope that that’s a blatant enough political reality that states will get their act together..." Of course, when only 14 states set up their own exchanges they changed their minds and decided to ignore all that noise because, quote, Fuck you, we're the government, unquote. So everyone gets subsidies, Oprah style! even though that's not what the law explicitly says. The crux of the matter is that if it is overturned (or I guess if the Obama administration's interpretation is disallowed), ObamaCare goes into a death spiral (or possibly not) and blows up into an unimaginable armageddon machine of pain, laying waste to cities like some prehistoric dinosaur-extincting meteorite of death. If it's upheld then the same thing happens only slower. Anyway, in order to uphold the dignity of the Supreme Court, it's time to get plastered and lay some wagers. Here's your odds, bet accordingly.

It's overturned. I wanted to put this one at infinity to 1 but even crazy soccer dads in England who bet that their 3 month old son will make it to the Premier League get better odds than that so I'll just set it at 300 to 1. I would go higher except I'm saving that for the next one...

A Liberal votes to overturn. 400 to 1. Think back to any important contentious court case in recent years and try to think of a Liberal switching sides. Doesn't happen. Although this quote from Justice Kagan kind of makes me kind of nervous to put up these sorts of odds;
the Court does not revise legislation . . . just because the text as written creates an apparent anomaly.” “Such anomalies often arise from statute,” and “this Court has no roving license . . . to disregard clear language simply on the view that . . . Congress ‘must have intended’ something broader,” even if the language used by Congress “makes not a whit of sense.” 
Still, not going to happen.

Unanimous decision either way. Yeesh, ok maybe this is the most unlikely thing to happen. I already used 400 to 1 and this is way more unlikely so maybe I'll put this at like 500 to 1.

Justice Roberts switches sides (to the Liberal side, that is) and upholds. 3-2. It's hard to imagine that someone who did the gymnastics he did to uphold ObamaCare during the last challenge would choose now to scuttle it.

A conservative other than Roberts switches sides to cast the deciding vote to uphold. Dark Horse! This is the one that haunts my nightmares. Kennedy is the obvious one but I keep thinking up scenarios where one of the justices side with the Upholders on some strange bit of legal arcana. I'll give it 20-1. For now.

A non-5-4 decision. Not counting unanimous decisions, 30 to 1. Just not feeling 6 to 3, 7 to 2 or 8 to 1. I want to make these really terrible odds but surprisingly a lot of Supreme Court rulings lately seem to fall here. Just not on big newsworthy stuff.

SMOD destroys all life on Earth. 1 to 1 odds. Because it will happen. Eventually.

p.s. Oh, and all other possibilities are... quite inconsequential.

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